Predicting the weather

[andy]

As i sit here with the rain lashing against the conservatory roof and the weather station reading 3.5 degrees outside, i hear the first knockings from "ameteur" weather forecasters saying how this winter will be the coldest on record, snow up to the chimneys and god knows what else.

Being gardeners, we all have a vested interested in mother nature and the weather and we all like to point to little statistics and even things like "there's more berries on the cottoneaster than usual" to help us in our struggle for the perfect garden.

BUT....for the past 3 summers, if we were to believe the "ameteur" and even the "profesional" weather forecasters, we should be getting weeping figs and kentia palms sprouting up all over our green and pleansant land....although they wouldn't last long because the giraffes and wilderbeast would've eaten them all.

In truth, there's no way we can predict anything over 3-5 days....7 at most if the weather's very settled. Daily indicators work ok....red sky at night and checking whether the cows are lying down has a certain degree of success although i do wonder if many local TV and radio stations use these methods all the time.

However, if they keep predicting, they're bound to get it right one day. Due to certain patterns and trends, it was a dead cert that polar bears would be making an appearance in the UK last winter....an ABSOLUTE DEAD CERT.....yet we had one of the mildest winters on records.

So let's use our common sense. If it's anywhere between October and April and the weatherman says "it's going to be frosty tonight folks", stick your head out of the door and if it looks like a clear, still night and feels chilly...then brings the tender plants in.

Andy

[Rosefriend]

Very good Andy - I must admit that I feel pretty much the same. Every year we are told that we are in for a bad winter - this year we have had tons more acorns etc etc but I do wonder whether it didn't have a little more to do with the April being warmer than usual, rather than some hidden force making sure that the squirrels have enough food for the winter.

RF

[Shrubrose]

Must say, I dont rely on 'technology' overmuch. More on the old folk sayings like 'red sky at night' etc. Weather forecasts cant predict weather in my patch, it's just not that sensitive. Indicative only. I'd rather rely on my and my instincts to be honest.

[Babyswan]

Hello,

as you brits usually get your weather from west to east, this may be helpful in telling what it's going to be like, a day in advance.

www.met.ie

regards

[Weeterrier]

I use the 'look out of the window' method. Is it just my age, or is it difficult to follow what weather forecasters say nowadays? They seem to jump from one area to the next, tell us about yesterday, tomorrow, now, North Africa Give me back a quietly dreesed man with a map of the British Isles and a pointer.